Reasons Why You Should and Shouldn't Worry About the Vita's Future

A complement to yesterday's piece regarding the Wii U's future, today SuperPhillip Central is shifting focus to another struggling/doomed/dying/etc. platform, the PlayStation Vita. Like with the Wii U, there are decent arguments on both sides of the spectrum regarding why the Vita's future is up in the air. This is no doom and gloom piece. It is an attempt to be as fair as possible (note the word "attempt"), taking in account both viewpoints. Let's get the negativity out of the way first.

- High prices for the system and memory card are still a stumbling point.

Let's face reality here-- the Vita's $250 price tag is a major hurdle for many consumers. The Assassin's Creed III: Liberation Amazon bundle from late last year was an excellent deal, and to me, it showed that plenty of people are willing to get the Vita as long as the price and value are reasonable.

The main problem right now is that the user base is so low that third-parties are hesitant to release games on the Vita. This is a mirror image of the issue Nintendo is currently having with their Wii U console. Perhaps it is a Catch-22 situation where no one is buying the Vita because the games aren't there, but third-parties aren't interested in putting games on the Vita because the sales aren't there. Will the price remain so high that consumers don't buy the Vita, resulting in third-parties continuing to find little reason to support the system? That's the rub.

- Software sales are generally low.

Nothing can damn a platform, whether it is a home console or a portable, more than having low software sales. When third-parties see low attach rates or low software sales in general for a platform, they show massive trepidation in supporting it. We're seeing that right now with both the Vita and Nintendo's Wii U.

The problem is compounded by the fact that in Japan, some software is selling, but it is only really selling to the preexisting user base. There is no true expansion of the Vita market. With no expansion, what hope does the Vita currently have in generating support? Sure, smaller, more niche developers will continue to support the system, but what about the larger publishers?


- Sony has had to lower their Vita forecast three times now.

I doubt three times within the span of a year is a record, but it is quite worrying. By March 31st of this year, Sony now plans to ship worldwide 7 million PSPs and PlayStation Vita systems combined (source here). The sales forecast was once at 16 million combined, and then it was slashed down to 12 million combined in August.

This goes back to third-parties. If the handheld is doing so poorly that Sony has to revise their sales forecast three times, what possible reason should publishers have for giving the Vita their support? It is my belief that unlike Nintendo, Sony most likely would not be able to support a handheld all by themselves, especially when they have a next generation console forthcoming. It makes for a situation that looks dismal, and right now there is no indication that it will get any better.

- There is a great amount and variety of software, yet the platform still struggles.

The last generation of handhelds was, in SuperPhillip Central's opinion, the best that the industry has ever seen. We have two great selling handhelds in the Nintendo DS and the PSP, and they both delivered an awesome library of games. You'll be reading more about that later this week.

A problem here is that there is honestly plenty of interesting software for the system (Uncharted: Golden Abyss, WipEout 2048, Hot Shots Golf: World Invitational, Gravity Rush, LittleBigPlanet PS Vita, etc.), yet hardware sales are still rather tepid, to put it nicely.

This isn't like the Wii U where there really isn't much in the way of content to get consumers excited for the system. The Vita has a competent amount of intriguing titles out right now. What can Sony do if a lot of their big hitters have failed to light up hardware sales for the Vita? I talk more about this later on in this piece.

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Now, let's get some good energy going on with why you shouldn't worry about the Vita's future.

+ Sony has admitted they have a problem.

They say the first step to recovery is admitting you have a problem. Sony did just that this last month with Kaz Hirai stating that Vita sales are lower than what the company expected. Last week, Sony's Chief Financial Officer Masaru Kato noted that there's a lot that can be done concerning marketing the system.

Certainly it is challenging to get people excited about your product if it has a small presence, and Sony possibly promoting the Vita better will surely get consumers to acknowledge the platform in a greater way.

It's refreshing to see Sony admit their mistakes, but most importantly, will the company actually do something about their current problems? I believe they will, and hiring a new advertising firm for their North American marketing seems to be a start, but will Sony reach out more to third-parties and push for more software? Would third-parties listen? Will we see a desperate Sony pull "a Nintendo" and drastically slash the price of their struggling system? Would they be able to afford such a move? There is no one correct answer here, and that is important to note.

+ Sony's studios are very much invested in supporting the system.

Nintendo has it where they have their strongest and most heralded studios not just working on their mainline home consoles, but they also work on plenty of handheld titles. It makes it appear that Nintendo cares just as much about its handheld legacy as they do their console legacy, and that's probably very true.

It is terrific to see that Sony's premiere studios like Guerrilla Games and Media Molecule are taking the platform seriously. It is a drastic departure from the PSP where mostly only Sony's less prominent studios worked on the company's first-party software. With upcoming software like September's Killzone: Mercenary and the charming and crafty adventure title Tearaway planned for release-- alongside whatever the future holds-- the first-party output for the system is looking quite promising. I just hope that continues.

+ Bundles, price drops, and new colors haven't been fully utilized yet.

Bundles are always a great way to add value to your platform of choice. We've seen various Vita bundles in North America: one for Call of Duty: Black Ops: Declassified, one for Assassin's Creed III: Liberation, and one for Madden 13. These have been quite successful for Sony's Vita. If Sony continues to exhibit value to consumers, then their bundles will continue to sell well.

It's important to note that the Vita is a pricey proposition to a lot of people. Sony has yet to pull the price drop card out of their deck. However, like I said regarding Nintendo, you have to be smart about when you drop the price of your hardware. Do it at the wrong time, and you will have an extremely short-term solution. I believe that you need to have a price drop at the same time you begin seeing interesting titles releasing on the system. Look at how the Nintendo 3DS dropped in price just around the time a steady stream of hit games starting rolling out. If Sony can pull the same scenario with the Vita, then I'm sure they'll have a long stretch of good luck and rewards.

The final and more minor thing that helps boosts sales is different colors. Of course, if the system does not have the software that appeals to consumers, then you can have a veritable rainbow of color choices, and it will not matter. The point of all this, regardless, is that there are still many strategies and so-called "get out of jail free cards" that Sony can still use to turn the Vita's fortunes around.

+ The PlayStation 4 and Vita's possible developmental similarities

It is heavily rumored among gamers and the press that February 20th's PlayStation event will be the coming out party and reveal of the PlayStation 4. What I thought of that might help the Vita's development situation is if the PlayStation 4 has a familiar development atmosphere to Sony's handheld. Perhaps third-parties would find it easy to down-port PS4 titles to the Vita, due to the similarities between the two platforms, giving the handheld more support that way.

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Like with SuperPhillip Central's Wii U article, I am not saying that the Vita is going to fail, nor am I saying it will succeed. I am simply noting reasons why some may or may not be worried about the system's future. Join the discussion by posting your thoughts in the comments.

Reasons Why You Should and Shouldn't Worry About the Wii U's Future

Put away the daggers, put away the pitchforks, put away the swords, and put away any other pointy object you might possess. You probably see this piece as simply another "doom and gloom" Wii U article. However, we here at SuperPhillip Central have a love for the system. However, it's quite disingenuous to deny that the system's current path makes its upcoming future seem bright and rosy. On the flip side, it's quite silly to say that the Wii U is a failure so quickly. Perhaps the only failure is how quickly people board the negativity bandwagon without thinking rationally.

This piece notes some of the reasons that the Wii U's recent woes should and should not alarm you. Perhaps alarm is too much hyperbole. I should say that the system's woes should at the very least concern you, especially if you're banking on Nintendo to do well this console generation. I am not saying that the Wii U is going to fail, nor am I saying it will succeed. I am simply noting reasons why some may or may not be worried about the system's future.

Let's appease all of the Negative Nancys first:

- January's abysmal U.K. Wii U retail performance

The United Kingdom is but a small portion of Nintendo's market, but the idea that only 34,000 units of software (that includes Nintendo Land Wii U bundles) were sold and the system only clutched a pithy 1.6% of the U.K. market last month is absolutely sobering.

One can take this with some optimism or total pessimism. January is generally an empty month for most platforms, especially a new one such as the Wii U, so it's no wonder the system sold so low. A pessimist could see the numbers and say that Nintendo has lost the U.K., and no one wants the Wii U. The situation is going to look less and less hopeful as the months of no new Wii U releases roll on. Whatever side you are on, it is difficult to say that the sales and market presence of the Wii U are looking good right now. This only gives publishers more reason not to allocate any resources to Wii U projects. Then again, perhaps they were already planning that before the system even came out.

- Lack of retail presence between December and March

How is a system supposed to carry launch momentum when there are an overwhelming lack of retail games released for a quarter of the year? The delay of Rayman Legends was a huge blow for any possible chance of the Wii U moving out of mediocre sales and starting to gain some traction. You can read my thoughts on that mess here.

It's almost a self-fulling prophecy. Publishers say the Wii U's sales are weak, but that's because there are no games being released for it by them or Nintendo. Maybe had Ubisoft released Rayman Legends when it was due out and third-parties had games lined up for the system to fill in the empty Q1 2013 time period, the Wii U would have had more momentum. Wii U owners would take note of games during an empty release period because they have had nothing new to play for months.

It's not entirely third-parties' fault either. Nintendo has had nothing in this quarter, and that has harmed the system's momentum considerably. If people supposedly buy Nintendo hardware for Nintendo software, no wonder so few purchased systems last month. February is only going to get worse sales-wise.

- Western third-party support is anemic 

I never figured Nintendo would ever get proper third-party support from Western developers. The majority of the West seems focused more on high end graphics than innovation, and there's nothing wrong with that. It's just an attitude that Nintendo does not share. How many times have we heard weak excuses for not developing for the Wii U because the developer couldn't think of a proper use of the Wii U GamePad? If you ever expected decent Western third-party support in retail channels for the Wii U, then you were setting yourself up for severe disappointment.

If the news from the D.I.C.E. summit that more developers were talking about cancelling Wii U games than making them holds any water (it's not difficult to believe, sadly), then the system's hope for any kind of relevancy in terms of Western support is already irrevocably damaged. Somehow, someway, the Wii U third-party situation is already worse than what was found on the Wii. That is absolutely pitiful.

What about EA? When even they won't even announce the new Madden, a series that is basically a given on every home console, on the Wii U, then something is most definitely wrong here. What happened to that "unprecedented partnership"? Did Nintendo really shun EA's Origin online system (and for good reason) that EA is now absolutely bitter about it?

Then again, Nintendo, perhaps, could be the only console manufacturer that could hold up its own hardware with its own software. Their IPs are just that popular. As things are going now in the West, they might just have to.

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Enough negativity. Let's look at reasons you shouldn't bother worrying about the Wii U's current struggles.

+ Nintendo's blockbusters have yet to come out

This is an important one, and one that most likely outshines plenty of the negatives. The truth of the matter is that the most significant titles for the Wii U have yet to be released. We received news of a flurry of them via last month's Nintendo Direct. There was the new 3D action Mario game, a new Mario Kart, two Zelda announcements, Yarn Yoshi, and more. If Nintendo can release these titles in a steady stream, sales are sure to bounce back. That's what any system needs-- a steady stream of software to keep interest in a system up and sales continuing. I don't believe just one game will sell a given system. It might do that for hardcore fans of a given franchise or genre, but it doesn't work with the majority of people.

New Super Mario Bros. U did not have a 50 million+ user base to get sales from like the Wii game did. That title launched with a user base of zero, so it's no wonder the title is not lighting sales charts the world over on fire. There could also be fatigue from the NSMB line of games. After all, New Super Mario Bros. 2 on the 3DS had only come out a few months earlier. It's easy to say that New Super Mario Bros. U was not the system-seller Nintendo was thinking it would be. However, with Nintendo's promised lineup of games, it seems easy to say that the Wii U's fortunes will turn around.

+ Price drop, bundles, and new colors are always options.

Nintendo president Satoru Iwata stood firmly against the idea of a price drop for the Wii U so soon. After all, the platform is selling for a loss as is. However, if push comes to shove, lowering the price for the Wii U is always an option on the table. It worked quite well for the Nintendo 3DS, but it's important to note that this was not the only reason for the one struggling handheld's success. The 3DS's price drop was strategically done at a time where some of the bigger titles for the system were set to be released. I'm referring to titles like The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D, Super Mario 3D Land, and Mario Kart 7. If Nintendo can wait to drop the price of the Wii U when the heavy hitters like the new 3D Mario, Mario Kart, and Wind Waker remake release, then at least for a good while the system can do well.

On the subject of bundles and new colors, these two concepts sometimes work and sometimes don't. The recently announced ZombiU bundle that comes with a retail copy of the game, a digital copy of Nintendo Land, and a Pro Controller will actually save buyers money compared to if they bought all of the individual items separately. Bundles like this, especially if they have Mario in them or some killer game, could possibly do Nintendo and their currently struggling system a bit well, too.

+ Indie developers are still supporting the system, and finding success.

If big publishers are hesitant (and thus creating a self-fulfilling prophecy) to release games on the Wii U, then independent developers are ready and willing. While the pickings are limited right now, there is plenty to look forward to on the Nintendo eShop. Two Tribes has Toki Tori 2 in the pipeline, Gajin Games has Bit.Trip Runner 2 racing onto the shop, Renegade Kid is currently busy tinkering with Mutant Mudds Deluxe, and there are many other titles coming or at least hinted at coming.

Considering that Nintendo is allowing these studios much greater leeway than they did on WiiWare, such as allowing free patches and the ability to perform their own sales and price points, the Wii U eShop is an attractive choice for indie developers. I, for one, cannot wait to see what other indie titles will be coming to the system throughout the platform's life. If it's anything like the 3DS eShop, we're going to be very spoiled.

+ This system has had little to no marketing.

You might read this reason and wonder how little to no marketing can possibly be a good thing. That's simple. A reason why the Wii U isn't selling to potential, causing Nintendo to slash the forecast of how many Wii Us they plan to sell, is that a lot of people either don't know about or simply don't understand what the Wii U is. You can give me some anecdotal evidence on how your best friend's imaginary grandparents know all about the system and don't want it, but it stands to reason that Nintendo is suffering the same issues that they had with the 3DS.

With the 3DS, there was much confusion regarding whether or not the handheld was the successor the the Nintendo DS, or if it was simply a revision. I think many people think the Wii U is just a peripheral to the original Wii. It doesn't help that: 1) The North American ads did nothing to mention the Wii U was not just the controller, and 2) The name is so darned similar to the Wii.

Then there's the amount of advertising for the system. Right now, at least in the United States, there are no ads at all for the system. Even in the holiday season, comparing the number of Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 ads to the Wii U's was no contest. The Wii U was blown away in television time. In fact, the ad campaign was no marketing blitz like most new platforms have. I believe that when new releases come out Nintendo should, if money allows, market the games on a broad array of channels. Focus not just on the TV Land, Nickolodeon and TLC crowds, but also the sports channels, Adult Swim, and programs that expand the scope of who Nintendo is going after with the Wii U.

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What are your thoughts on this piece? Again, I am not saying that the Wii U is going to fail, nor am I saying it will succeed. I am simply noting reasons why some may or may not be worried about the system's future. Note your opinions in the comments section.